PM01 Risk Analysis of Projects with Pertmaster

Course Précis

The course provides an introduction to schedule risk management for projects using Pertmaster Project Risk. Attendees will work with example projects on Pertmaster software to produce quantitative time risk analyses, and associated cost risk analyses. Attendees will be shown how skewed statistical distributions and parallel programming strongly affect programmes. This knowledge will allow future projects to be programmed so that they can be brought in on time and to budget.

Learning Outcomes:

• Understand basic probability theory and statistical distributions as appropriate to risk analysis
• Understand the concepts behind time / schedule risk, and their particular importance to overall construction project risk
• Understand the concept of Monte-Carlo risk analysis
• Understand how to create probabilistic events and branches in Pertmaster
• Be able to use Pertmaster 'criticality' and 'duration sensitivity' functions
• Be able to add cost risk analysis to Pertmaster
• Be able to transfer data from Primavera and MS Project Software

Audience:

This course is aimed those who can plan a project and would like to progress further to modelling project risk.

Prerequisite:

A working knowledge of spreadsheets, basic understanding of planning/programming.

Length: 1 day

Course Content:

The following is the full syllabus of topics covered during the course, however the course will be 'hands-on'; taught using Pertmaster software to give concrete examples of theoretical topics.

Probability & Risk

• Definition of risks & opportunities
• Basic concepts of probability
• Understand concept of distribution
• Meanings of mean, median, mode and expected value
• Understanding of appropriate distributions:
• uniform, triangular, normal, beta and PERT distributions etc.
• Understand input distributions into risk software
• Understand concepts of Monte-Carlo analysis.
• Running simple Monte-Carlo models
• Understand importance of asymmetry of distributions and so asymmetry of risk affects.
• Understanding random effects on activity and project completion times.
• Detailed understanding of parallel path / network effects especially merge bias / stochastic variance effects

Pertmaster Software Functions

• Use of Quick Risk for initial three point analysis
• Entering detailed risk estimates
• Whole project output distributions
• Selected task output distributions
• Use of Criticality Index
• Use of Duration Senistivity analysis
• Tornado chart presentations
• Using and displaying task percentiles
• Modelling uncertain events with probabilities
• Probabilistic Branching
• Hammock Activities
• Lump costs, rate costs, damages
• Risk costs and probabilities
• Importing and exporting to P3e
• Importing and exporting to MS Project

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