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Risk ResourcesThe following is a personal list of useful resources for risk analysis and management. It is biased towards project risk management, but includes other sources of information. I would be happy to add other relevant sites.
Institute of Risk Management (UK)
Association for Project Management
APM Risk Management Specific Interest Group
PMI Risk Management Specific Interest Group
Risk Books and Background Material
The Book of Risk - Dan Borge - ISBN 0471323780 - Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc - Release date: 2001
This is an excellent, well written and witty introduction to commercial risk in the most general sense.
Waltzing with Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects - Tom DeMarco, Tim Lister - ISBN 0932633609 - Publisher: Dorset House Publishing Co - Release date: 2003
Another very well written book. Although it is aimed at software projects, it is the best introductory guide to project risk management I have found, and I would strongly recommend it for anyone involved in any sort of project management, including construction projects.
Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide – David Vose - ISBN 047199765X - Publisher: John Wiley & Sons - Release date: 2000
A more technical guide to risk analysis in general. Despite the more mathematical content it is very well written and should be accessible to anyone with A-level or university mathematics. It also gives a good introduction to the use of spreadsheet risk software.
Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects - John R. Schuyler - ISBN 1880410281 - Publisher: Project Management Institute - Release date: 2001
A useful technical guide to using risk and decision analysis in commercial projects.
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge - Project Management Institute - ISBN 1930699506 - Publisher: Project Management Institute - Release date: 2004
A good general guide to project management, includes a section on risk analysis.
Spreadsheet Modelling and Decision Analysis - Cliff T. Ragsdale - ISBN 0324183992 - Publisher: South Western College Publishing - Release date: 2003
Practical Management Science: Spreadsheet Modeling and Applications - Wayne L. Winston, S. Christian Albright - ISBN 0534371353 - Publisher: Duxbury Resource Center - Release date: 2000
Both of these books give lots of technical information on spreadsheet modelling techniques, but are not for the faint-hearted.
Statistics For Technology - Christopher Chatfield - (Out of print, various editions & publishers – usually available on Abebooks)
Included as the only well written, easy to follow, book on statistics and probability that I have ever found. This book is a worthy candidate for a reprint.
Cultures and Organizations - Geert Hofstede - ISBN: 1861975430 - Publisher: Profile Business
A fascinating book, which looks at cultural differences, including attitudes to risk, from a reasonably secure scientific basis.
If you want to buy these books new, book butler will give you a price comparison and then link through to a supplier.
Second hand books can usually be obtained from abebooks.
Click here for a good introduction to Monte-Carlo simulation.
Some examples of using Monte-Carlo simulation are given at the following sites:
http://www.duncanwil.co.uk/hospmonteb.htm
http://www.economics.ltsn.ac.uk/cheer/ch13_2/ch13_2p12.htm
The Pertmaster website gives an explanation of the particular problems of schedule risk (unfortunately with triangular distributions).
There are two big lists of software on the APM and PMI sites (you will need to register at the PMI site first).
The market leaders for spreadsheet risk tools are:
Although well specified, both these products have significant costs.
Two very useful, and much cheaper, alternatives for spreadsheet risk are:
If you really can’t afford $39.95, or you enjoy playing with VBA, you could always build your own Monte-Carlo models in Excel. For some advice, click here.
Pertmaster is the market leader for schedule risk analysis and is an excellent product.
Crest Software have a scheduling tool with a Monte-Carlo engine called CS Project, which is substantially cheaper, unfortunately it doesn’t have conditional branching and only uses triangular distributions.
For people working in finance risk there is a library of open source software at Quantlib.
Sam Sugiyama of EC Risk and David Vose of Risk Modelling provide very high quality general risk training and analysis services.
There are a number of other mainstream and specialist consultancies providing risk analysis services; the following is not an exhaustive list.
Agency Central gives a comprehensive guide to employment agencies for almost every field.
Whether you are looking for a risk analyst, or looking for work as a risk analyst, Tom Brown at Resourcing Solutions has pretty well got the marketplace cornered.
COST Action P10 "Physics of Risk" – is a collaborative EU academic network investigating many different aspects of risk and complexity
For those interested in financial industry risk there is a significant volume of relevant recent research in econophysics.
http://www.unifr.ch/econophysics/
The Institute for Operations Research and Management Science has a lot of useful links, including full papers from past conferences.
CWC provide specialist training and other services to the construction industry.
Entheos Coaching provide executive coaching, partnering etc, specialised in the construction industry.
HSEC provide high quality health, safety, training and specialist engineering services.
